Rents in Hong Kong, home to some of the world’s most expensive shopping streets, are forecast to fall by up to 20 per cent this year as luxury retailers suffer because of the corruption crackdown and economic slowdown in mainland China.
预计今年香港门店租金将最多下跌20%，原因是中国内地的反腐运动和经济放缓令奢侈品零售商受到冲击。全球最昂贵的一些购物街位于香港。Surging Chinese demand for jewellery, watches and designer goods sent rents in Hong Kong’s most famous shopping streets rocketing in recent years, overtaking New York’s Fifth Avenue, Paris’s Champs-Élysées and London’s Bond Street.
最近几年，中国对珠宝、手表以及设计师产品的需求飙升，推动香港最知名购物街的门店租金直线上涨，超过了纽约第五大道(Fifth Avenue)、巴黎香榭丽舍大街(Champs-Élysées)和伦敦邦德街(Bond Street)。
But as lower Chinese spending started to hit rents, Hong Kong’s Causeway Bay lost its crown as the world’s most expensive retail district to Fifth Avenue at the end of last year, according to Cushman & Wakefield, a property agency.
但房地产经纪商高纬环球(Cushman & Wakefield)的数据显示，随着中国内地游客削减支出的行为开始冲击到门店租金，去年年底，香港铜锣湾将全球最昂贵零售街区的桂冠拱手让与纽约第五大道。
Now investment bank Credit Suisse and estate agent Savills expect rents to fall by 20 per cent this year, while JLL, another property company, expects a 10-15 per cent drop.
如今，投行瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)和房地产经纪商第一太平戴维斯(Savills)预测，今年香港的门店租金将下跌20%，另一家房地产服务公司仲量联行(JLL)预计，租金将下跌10%至15%。“Because of the anti-graft drive in China there are fewer people buying gifts and less show of wealth, at the same time as there’s been a slowdown in the Chinese economy,” said Nick Bradstreet, head of leasing for Savills in Hong Kong. “It’s also become cheaper to buy luxury goods in South Korea, Japan or Europe because of the exchange rate.”
“由于中国的反腐运动，购买礼品的人和炫富现象都有所减少，另外中国内地的经济也一直在放缓。”第一太平戴维斯驻香港的租赁业务主管尼克•布拉德斯特里特(Nick Bradstreet)表示，“还有，由于汇率因素，现在在韩国、日本或欧洲购买奢侈品要便宜一些。”Credit Suisse forecasts that retail sales in Hong Kong will fall by 5 per cent this year to HK$469bn ($60.5bn), the biggest annual drop since 2000, with sales of jewellery, watches and luxury goods sliding by 12 per cent.
瑞信预测，香港零售额今年将下滑5%，至4690亿港元（合605亿美元），为2000年以来的最大年度降幅。珠宝、手表和奢侈品销售额将下滑12%。In addition to the anti-corruption push and slower economic growth, Chinese tourists have also been deterred because of growing protests against their presence by Hong Kong residents frustrated at the jump in visitor numbers.
除了反腐运动和经济增长放缓，中国内地游客还因一些香港居民日益反对他们出现在香港而取消了赴港计划。之前中国内地赴港游客人数激增令这些香港居民感到不满。The number of mainlanders visiting Hong Kong, which is governed semi-independently under the “one country, two systems” arrangement, fell by 10 per cent year-on-year in March, according to the Hong Kong Tourism Board.
根据香港旅游发展局(Hong Kong Tourism Board)的数据，今年3月，赴港内地游客人数同比减少10%。香港依照“一国两制”拥有高度的自治权。Joyce Kwock, a property analyst at Credit Suisse, believes falling currencies in Japan, South Korea and the eurozone have accelerated the move away from Hong Kong as more adventurous Chinese tourists fly further afield in search of discounts.
瑞信房地产分析师Joyce Kwock认为，日本、韩国以及欧元区汇率的下跌加快了中国内地游客远离香港的速度，越来越多喜欢探索的中国内地游客飞到更遥远的地方寻找打折商品。“Hong Kong street-store rents have been boosted to such a high base in the last few years so they are very vulnerable to a downturn,” she said.
她表示：“过去几年，香港购物街门店租金被推升到一个很高的水平，因此很难抵御不景气的冲击。”Analysts believe individual landlords will bear the brunt of the slowdown, while high-end shopping malls have a better chance of sustaining rents because they offer a more varied shopping environment and help retailers with marketing.
分析师认为，受冲击最大的将是个人房东，而高端购物商场有更大可能维持租金水平，因为它们可提供更加多样的购物环境并帮助零售商营销。While some landlords and luxury brands including Burberry suffer, cheaper retailers like Zara and Mango could benefit from the opportunity to open in high-profile streets at lower rents.
一些房东以及包括博柏利(Burberry)在内的奢侈品品牌将受到冲击，但Zara和芒果(Mango)等较低端零售商可能会成为受益者，因为门店租金的降低为它们在知名购物街开店提供了机会。“Fast fashion and affordable cosmetics brands should be able to find good locations that they couldn’t get three years ago,” said Tom Gaffney, head of retail at JLL. “We will see a change in the look of the shopping streets in Hong Kong and that is good for the retail sector because now it’s boring, with so many watch and jewellery stores.”
“快速时尚以及平价化妆品品牌应该能够拿到3年前无力负担的好地段。”仲量联行零售业主管汤姆•加夫尼(Tom Gaffney)表示，“我们会看到香港购物街的格局发生变化，这对于零售业是件好事，因为该行业现在有些无趣，手表店和珠宝店太多。”