Liquidity is so easy, said one Hong Kong trader last week, that investors are even buying Chinese banks. These behemoths are, or were, the least-liked sector of an unloved market. But they are the driver behind the fact that Hong Kong’s main Chinese benchmark was among the world’s top 10 performing indices in the past month. A change of views on China, or just money sloshing around in search of a home?
上周有一名香港交易员表示，流动性来得如此容易，以至于投资者甚至在买入中资银行股。在整体上不招人喜欢的市场中，这些巨兽本是最不受人待见的。然而，它们却是过去一个月里香港中企基准指数跻身全球表现十佳指数行列的推动因素。这是因为投资者对中国的看法变了，还是因为资金在四处寻找归宿？
By the numbers, views on Chinese stocks could hardly appear more negative. Equity investors have pulled more money out of China this year than all other emerging markets combined, and kept doing so even during the recent EM rally, says HSBC. In spite of its 7.3 per cent rise in the past month, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI), the main gauge of international sentiment towards mainland stocks, is still trading on just eight times expected earnings, compared with 14 for blue-chip mainland listings, and 19 times for the S&P 500.
从数据来看，投资者对中国股票的看法很难表现得更悲观了。汇丰(HSBC)表示，今年以来，股权投资者从中国撤出的资金超出了所有其他新兴市场的总和，而且，即使是在近期新兴市场大涨的行情中，他们依然在这么做。作为衡量国际投资者对中国企业股票的情绪的主要指标，恒生中国企业指数（HSCEI，简称国企指数）尽管在过去一个月里上涨了7.3%，其预期市盈率仍然只有8倍，低于内地蓝筹股的14倍，也低于标普500指数(S&P 500)的19倍。
Views on China’s economy depend on whether you are a bear or, that rare thing, a bull. Retail sales of 10.2 per cent year-on-year came in below expectations last week while industrial production slipped from 6.2 per cent to 6 per cent. Bears see both as a slowdown; bulls see a still decent growth rate. But one metric that everyone can agree is scary is credit, which is still growing at 12 per cent, or about twice the rate of the overall economy.
你对中国经济持何种看法，取决于你本身是看空者还是罕见的看多者。上周发布的中国社会消费品零售总额同比涨幅10.2%，低于预期。与此同时，规模以上工业增加值的增幅则从6.2%下滑至6%。看空者将两者都视为放缓，而看多者则认为这些仍是不错的增长率。然而，有一个指标可能引起了所有人的担心，那就是信贷。信贷仍然在以12%的速度增长，约为整体经济增长率的两倍。
China’s big banks trade on about 0.7 times book value, reflecting doubts about loan quality — roughly in line with their European peers. Europe, as measured by the FTSE Eurofirst 300 banks index, offers a return on equity of 3.4 per cent, while China’s big lenders offer 15-17 per cent.
中国大银行的股价约为每股净资产的70%，反映出投资者对贷款质量的疑虑——这个水平与欧洲大银行大致相当。以富时Eurofirst 300银行指数(FTSE Eurofirst 300 banks index)衡量，欧洲大银行的股本回报率为3.4%，而中国大银行为15%到17%。
Those two metrics matter for the $8bn-plus float next month of their fellow, Postal Savings Bank of China, in Hong Kong. Listings of mainland banks in the city have tended to attract only so-so demand, not helped by a mainland rule that they do not sell shares below book value.
对于中国邮政储蓄银行(Postal Savings Bank of China)下月在香港预计融资逾80亿美元的首次公开发行(IPO)来说，上述两个指标十分重要。由于香港不像内地有新股发行价格不低于每股净资产这样一条规则，内地银行在香港IPO所吸引的认购需求往往只能说是一般。
On paper, China’s banks look like some of the best value to be had. But in reality there is a big “would you?” factor.
理论上，中资银行看起来似乎属于具有最佳投资价值的股票。然而现实中你会不会投资却要打上一个大大的问号。
Strong interest in PSBC would suggest that interest was genuine and there was a change of heart but for now, this recent rally is indeed all about liquidity, not conviction.
假如中国邮储银行吸引了投资者的浓厚兴趣，那将表明这种兴趣是真实的，投资者的心态发生了改变。然而就目前来说，最近中资银行股上涨实际上只和流动性有关，而与投资者的看法无关。