Junk bonds have been investors' snack of choice over the past five years. They may soon regret that decision.
垃圾债券是过去五年里投资者的快餐。他们可能很快就会后悔自己的决定。Billionaire Jeffrey Gundlach believes the next crisis will be in junk bonds. His voice is worth listening to. Not only is Gundlach the so-called king of the bond markets, but the CEO of DoubleLine Capital correctly predicted the subprime crisis that sparked the Great Recession last decade.
亿万富翁杰弗里·冈拉克相信，下一场危机会在垃圾债券市场爆发。他说的话是可信的。不仅仅因为冈拉克是债券市场之王，还因为这位DoubleLine Capital的CEO曾经准确的预测出了造成过去十年大衰退的次贷危机。
Junk bonds, also known as high-yield debt, have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the Federal Rese rve's unprecedented moves since the financial crisis. The central bank kept interest rates near zero, for cing investors who need to earn a regular income to take a gamble on junk bonds because the interest rat s on U.S. government bonds are so low right now.
垃圾债券,又被称作高收益债券,由金融危机后美联储史无前例的量化宽松政策的最大受益人们持有。美国央行长期保持利率接近于0,国债的利息太低，迫使需要稳定收益投资者孤注一掷的进入垃圾债券市场。
"They've been searching for yield and throwing caution to the wind," Gundlach said over the weekend duri ng an appearance on Wall Street Week, a long-running weekly financial TV show that was recently resurrec ed.
冈拉克周末在华尔街周刊（一个最近重登银幕的长期周刊金融电视节目）上说，“他们不断的寻求收益，并把谨慎抛之脑后。”The problem: The junk bond market will soon face a double whammy: higher interest rates and a "wall" of maturities. The Fed is expected to begin raising rates later this year or early next. That's not very long before investors will start focusing on the combined $600 billion of junk bonds set to mature in 2018 and 2019.
问题是：垃圾债券市场将很快面临双重打击：高利率和到期"难"。二月份，人们预测利率会在年末或来年初提高。这离投资者们的6000亿美元垃圾债券集中到期的2018年和2019年已经不远了。Gundlach warns this could lead to a run on bond funds. All it would take is a small spark to cause investors to worry and run for the exits as they fear higher interest rates will make it harder for companies to "roll over," or refinance, that debt.
冈拉克警告，这会导致一场垃圾债券的崩溃。因为害怕过高利率会让公司难以"延期付款"和再融资，任何风吹草动都会导致投资者惊慌失措，争先恐后抛售债券。Investors want to get paid. Any sign of higher defaults will be alarming.
投资者们想获得收益。任何高违约的迹象都是一个警报。"The ultimate consequence of all of these extreme policies have yet to be felt -- but will be felt," he said.
他说，"这些极端政策的最终后果还没有发生——但是，一定会发生。"Junk bonds are newbies: No one knows exactly how the junk bond market will react to rising interest rates because it's never really experienced them before. The market didn't start to gain popularity until the mid-1980 when rates were far higher.
垃圾债券是个新事物：没人确切知道美联储提高利率会对垃圾债券市场产生什么反应，因为它在以前从未发生过。这个市场直到1980年中叶利率超高时才开始被人热捧。"The entire life of the junk bond market has been during secularly declining interest rates. It's like a summer insect. You can't talk about ice with a summer insect," Gundlach said.
"垃圾债券市场的整个生命期都处在利率持续下降的阶段。"冈拉克说，这就像夏天的昆虫。你无法知道夏天的昆虫在冰天雪地中是什么样子。Gundlach isn't the only one sounding the alarm about the bond markets.
冈拉克并不是唯一一个发现垃圾债券危险的人。Earlier this month JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon joined a slew of other smart people on Wall Street worried about liquidity in the fixed income market due to new regulations installed after the last crisis. During a panic there may not be enough bonds available to go around, Dimon argued.
本月上旬,在金融危机后新的规则出台后，摩根大通公司(JPM ) CEO杰米戴蒙杰米•戴蒙加入了一大堆其他华尔街聪明的人，由于上次金融危机之后，新规定开始实施，他们担心固定收入市场的流动性。“在一片恐慌可能没有足够的债券可得”，戴蒙说。Crisis would hurt real people, not just billionaires: All of this matters to mom-and-pop investors for several reasons.
危机将伤害普通人，不仅仅是百万富翁：小型投资者会遭受损失，有几个原因。Many investors have exposure to high-yield debt through their 401(k) plans. Average Joe's have also been putting a lot of money into echange-traded funds, or ETFs, that track junk bonds. The best example is the iShares iBoxx USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), which has nearly $17 billion of assets.
很多投资者已经通过他们的401（k）计划曝光了他们的高收益债券。普通人也把大量的钱投入到债券市场，或者投入到购买垃圾债券的基金里。最典型的例子就是HYG基金，它的资产已接近170亿美元。A lot of people could get squeezed if the junk bond market dries up. It would also hurt the broader economy.
如果垃圾债券市场枯竭，普通投资者会陷入价格挤压。也会损伤宏观经济。Malls face 'secular death spiral' The good news is Gundlach doesn't believe a junk bond crisis will happen tomorrow. He said it's okay for investors to own high-yield bonds for now -- but warns a disaster could be in the cards between a year and two years from now.
商业地产面临‘长期死亡漩涡' 好消息是，冈拉克认为垃圾债券危机不会迅速爆发。他说，投资者现在持有高收益债券还是可以的——但是，他警告，一场灾难可能会在一年到两年之内发生。In the meantime, Gundlach is advising people to stay away from certain sectors of the stock market that have benefited from investors' hunt for yield.
与此同时，冈拉克建议人们不要进入股票市场的某个确定的类别，因为那里充斥着杀散户的猎手。He specifically pointed to Master Limited Partnerships, or MLPs. These are complicated enterprises that pay out fat dividends but are heavily leveraged. When rates rise, their profit margins can collapse.
他特别指出了业主有限合伙制企业。它们是很复杂的企业，它们支付很高的股息，但是也有很高的杠杆。当利率上升时，它们的边缘利润就会崩溃。Gundlach also isn't a fan of mall REITs, or real-estate investment trusts, which have performed well because they are required to return a huge chunk of their profits to investors as dividends. Mall owner General Growth Properties (GGP) is actually the best S&P 500 stock of the entire bull market.
冈拉克不是房地产信托投资基金的粉丝，虽然这些基金看起来确实很好，因为他们需要回馈给投资者一大笔股息。商业地产公司GGP是整个牛市中标准普尔500最好的股票。"We're in a secular death spiral for malls," Gundlach said.
冈拉克说，"我们的商业地产正处在长期死亡漩涡中。"