By this time next year, we may have become disillusioned with the internet of things. The idea that every object — from toasters to street lights — could be connected to the internet and be communicating with us has been hyped for several years.
等到明年这个时候，我们或许就会对物联网彻底幻灭。一切物品——从烤面包机到路灯——都可以连接到互联网与我们沟通的概念已经炒作了数年。It reached a peak this month at the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, where more than 900 companies exhibited connected products. Samsung, makers of products from fridges to phones, said that within five years all of its appliances would be able to connect to the internet.
今年1月在拉斯维加斯举行的国际消费类电子产品展(CES)上，物联网的概念更是被渲染到极致，900多家公司展示了联网产品。制造商三星(Samsung)表示5年内旗下所有电器都将能联网，其产品涵盖了从电冰箱到手机等多种类别。
The predictions for the number of objects that will be connected are big — from technology research company Gartner’s forecast of 25bn connected physical objects by 2020 to tech company Cisco’s more bullish 50bn forecast.
据预测可联网物品的数量将非常庞大，技术研究公司高德纳(Gartner)预测至2020年将有250亿种联网物品，高科技公司思科(Cisco)更加乐观，给出了500亿的预测值。
Cue the ennui. Just as the internet hype of 2000 led to disillusionment, the internet of things will struggle to live up to expectations in the short term.
这开始令人觉得有点厌烦了。正如2000年对互联网的炒作导致了幻灭，物联网也难在短期内达到人们的期望。Companies, certainly, remain unconvinced by the business case. A survey by Gartner of 1,500 chief information officers last August found that only 22 per cent had deployed or were experimenting with the internet of things.
当然，企业对物联网的商业应用前景仍表怀疑。去年8月高德纳对1500名首席信息官进行调查后发现，仅22%的人表示所在企业已经涉足或正在尝试涉足物联网。The remaining 78 per cent either thought it irrelevant or at the too-early stage.
其余78%的人或认为物联网并不重要，或认为它还处于过早阶段。One problem is that the technology is still a little expensive, says Maurizio Pilu, partnerships director at Digital Catapult, a UK government organisation that helps support new projects.
Digital Catapult主管合作事宜的毛里齐奥•皮卢(Maurizio Pilu)表示，问题之一在于物联网技术还是有点贵。Digital Catapult是一家为新项目提供支持的英国政府机构。The price of a simple wireless sensor will soon be as low as £1, a price point at which this could become a mass-market proposition. But other parts of the kit, including communications and battery modules, might still come in at £20 to £40, which, Mr Pilu says, is too high.
一个简单的无线传感器的价格可能很快就会降至1英镑左右，在这一价位上该商品有可能进入大众市场。但包括通讯和电池模块在内的其余配套产品可能仍将维持在20英镑至40英镑的价位，皮卢表示这一价格仍然过高。“It needs to become closer to £3 to £4, [then] the business case begins to make sense,” he says.
他说：“它的价位要接近3英镑到4英镑，（那时）应用到商业上才开始具有合理性。”Telecoms networks have to change to meet the requirements of billions of low-power devices that need to connect constantly to the internet to transmit small amounts of data. The cost of sending such data over the network will have to come down.
电信网络必须作出改变，以满足数十亿个低功率设备的需求，它们需要持续联网发送少量数据。因此在网上发送这类数据的费用必须降下来。“It is not scalable for a low-cost device to pay several dollars a month just to have connectivity,” says Zach Shelby, director of technical marketing for the internet of things at Arm, the chip designer.
芯片设计公司Arm的物联网技术营销总监扎克•谢尔比(Zach Shelby)说：“每月光为了让一个低成本设备联网就要支付好几美元，这是无法推广的。”Security will need to be improved to ensure that internet-connected objects cannot be hacked and hijacked. Physical attacks over the internet are happening. At the end of last year the German federal office of information security revealed thatmachinery at a German steelworks was severely damaged when hackers gained access to control systems via the internet.
电信网络还需要提高安全性，确保联网设备不能被黑客攻击和劫持。现在已经发生了通过互联网发动物理攻击的事件。去年年底德国联邦信息安全办公室透露，黑客通过网络进入德国一家钢厂的控制系统，使该厂机器遭到严重破坏。When everything from traffic lights and cars to home heating systems are linked online, the potential for harmful hacks increases further. However, the simple, low-power devices used for the internet of things might not be able to handle heavy encryption, or may not be patched and updated if a security flaw is discovered.
等到从交通指示灯、汽车到家庭供暖系统的一切都连接上网，遭到破坏性攻击的可能性将进一步增加。然而，用于物联网的简单、低功率设备或许无法处理高度加密，或当发现安全漏洞时，可能无法打补丁或更新。“There are big security holes and quite a lot of work needs to be done to fix them,” says Jim Tully, analyst at Gartner.
高德纳的分析师吉姆•塔利(Jim Tully)说：“电信网络存在很大安全漏洞，还需要做大量工作来解决这些问题。”Interconnectivity of devices is an issue that needs resolving. If your toaster cannot talk to your TV, or if the street lights are not on the same system as the rubbish bins, the networks will be less useful. Persuading all manufacturers to agree looks tricky, as a number of competing industry groups are each pushing their own standard.
还有一个要解决的问题是设备之间的互联。如果烤面包机不能跟电视交流，或者路灯跟垃圾箱不在同一个系统里，物联网的用处就没那么大了。说服所有制造商都同意互联似乎是个棘手难题，因为许多相互竞争的行业团体都在各自力推自己的标准。“Everyone says ‘yes, lets ensure interoperability — as long as it is my version of interoperability’,” says Mr Pilu.
皮卢说：“人人都说‘好啊，让我们确保产品可以协同工作——只要按我的互操作标准来。’”The internet of things will raise privacy concerns, as it makes a fresh level of tracking and data collection possible. In the same way that companies and governments can follow what people do online — the websites they visit, what links they click — it will become possible to track almost everything an individual does in the physical world.
物联网将引发隐私问题，因为它可能将跟踪和数据收集推上新的高度。同样地，企业和政府可以密切注意人们在网上做什么，比如他们浏览的网站，他们点击的链接，届时人们在现实世界中的所有行踪几乎都可以被掌握。Companies are interested in the marketing possibilities this presents. Yet public opinion will have to decide whether there should be limits on what can be monitored.
企业对物联网呈现的营销前景很有兴趣。然而公众舆论将决定是否该对可监控对象设限。While these issues are being resolved, large-scale internet of things projects are rolling out slowly. The projects with the clearest business case have to do with saving money on municipal street lighting and bin collection. General Electric says San Diego will save $254,000 a year by replacing some 3,000 street lamps with an intelligent lighting grid where each individual lamp can be remotely monitored and adjusted. The system makes it easy to pinpoint lamps that need changing and switch off those not in use.
随着这些问题一步一步得到解决，大规模物联网项目也在慢慢推出。具有清晰商业意义的项目涉及城市街道照明和垃圾收集的成本节约。通用电气(General Electric)表示圣迭戈通过将大约3000盏路灯换成智能照明网，每年将节省25.4万美元。智能照明网里的每盏路灯可以远程监控和调节。该系统方便准确找出需要换灯泡的路灯，以及关闭不使用的路灯。Philadelphia, meanwhile, was able to reduce its rubbish collection costs from $2.3m to $720,000 in part by fitting rubbish bins with sensors that were triggered when the container was full, eliminating unnecessary collection trips to half-empty bins.
费城则可以将收集垃圾的成本从230万美元减少到72万美元，方案之一是给垃圾桶安装传感器，垃圾箱装满时即触发传感器，这样可以不用在垃圾箱半满时去收垃圾，减少不必要的往返。More complex projects are still in a development phase. Milton Keynes in the UK will this year fit parking spots with sensors that tell drivers when the space is free. Mr Pilu, who is helping to launch the project, admits that it will be difficult to measure the return on an investment like this.
更复杂的项目仍处于开发阶段。英国的米尔顿凯恩斯(Milton Keynes)今年将在停车场安装传感器，当停车场有空位时传感器会通知驾驶员。皮卢正在协助开展这项计划，他承认像这样的投资很难衡量回报。Medical and research uses are being explored. Research from AT&T, the US telecoms multinational, for example, has partnered with 24eight, which makes pressure sensors that can be embedded into shoe inner soles. They have distributed slippers with an internet-connected chip to elderly people at a care centre in Texas, and are using the foot movement data they receive to diagnose health problems, such as the initial stages of Alzheimer’s disease.
物联网的医疗和科研用途正在探索中。比如美国跨国电信公司AT&T的研发部门与压力传感器（可嵌入鞋内底）制造商24eight达成合作。他们将内置联网芯片的拖鞋发放给德克萨斯州一家护理中心的老年人，利用所收到的足部运动数据诊断健康问题，比如阿尔茨海默氏病的初期阶段。“In the early stages of Alzheimer’s you might get up to make a cup of tea but for a moment forget where you were going. That small wandering pattern, which others might not initially notice, could be an early warning sign,” says Mr Tully.
塔利说：“在阿尔茨海默氏症早期阶段，你可能起身泡了杯茶，但过一会儿就忘了自己要干什么。这种轻微的精神恍惚状态有可能是早期预警信号，但其他人可能一开始注意不到。”He believes some of the “wacky” personal items on display at CES may evolve into industrial-scale applications. Vessyl, a cup that identifies any liquid poured into it, might sound like a toy for those wanting to keep tabs on their drinks intake. But what about applying the concept to a car and monitoring that the right fuel is in the tank?
他认为CES展上一些“稀奇古怪”的个人物品有可能发展成工业级的应用。Vessyl是一款能识别出倒入液体的杯子，听起来像是适合那些想监督自己饮料摄入情况的人使用的玩意儿。但假设将这一概念应用到汽车上，检测油箱里的汽油加得对不对呢？“We will see hundreds of little applications that will be eventually woven together to make a smart city,” says Mr Pilu. “I believe this will develop in an evolutionary way.”
皮卢说：“我们将看到成百上千个小应用，它们最终将交织在一起，编织出一座智能城市。我相信这将以循序渐进的方式发展。”But do not expect the internet of things to do spectacular things just yet. For the time being, expect more internet-connected bins and street lighting, while businesses work out just what else these ecosystems can do.
但是不要指望物联网马上就大放异彩。目前只能期待更多联网垃圾箱和路灯，然后等着企业想出这些生态系统还能做到什么。