Three days after Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov was slain by at least four bullets in the back outside the walls of the Kremlin, there is no trace of his killer.
But politicians, activists and observers critical of President Vladimir Putin agree that, whoever pulled the trigger, Nemtsov fell victim to a climate of hate and fear that the authorities have fanned in Russia since the revolution in Ukraine and Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.
不过，对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)持批评态度的政客、社会活动人士和观察家都认同这样一种看法：不论谁是杀害涅姆佐夫的凶手，涅姆佐夫都是乌克兰危机以来俄罗斯仇恨与恐惧氛围的牺牲品，而这种氛围正是俄罗斯当局在俄罗斯国内煽动起来的。乌克兰危机的发端，则始于乌克兰革命和俄罗斯对克里米亚的吞并。Mr Putin’s opponents had been under growing pressure since his return to the presidential office in 2012. But after Ukraine’s political upheavals began, this pressure turned into open threats.
自2012年普京再次当选总统以来，普京的反对者遭遇的压力越来越大。而在乌克兰开始出现政治动荡以后，这种压力变成了公然威胁。
Vladimir Ryzhkov, a long-time friend of Nemtsov and co-chairman of his political party, said the state and state-run media had both presented liberal opposition figures as traitors and enemies and implicitly encouraged violence against them.
涅姆佐夫长期密友、其所在政党的联席主席弗拉基米尔•雷日科夫(Vladimir Ryzhkov)表示，俄罗斯政府和官方媒体都把自由主义反对派人士说成是叛国者和敌人，并隐性鼓励针对他们的暴力活动。“In Soviet times, the state had a monopoly of force,” he said. “Now we don’t have such a monopoly. We have violence from the top, threats from the top, and an amazing threat from the bottom. We have all kinds of nationalist groups, radicals, military veterans, sports clubs. And any group could use violence against those who they think are enemies of Russia.”
他说：“在苏联时代，政府垄断了武力。如今，这种垄断不复存在了。我们面临的是来自高层的暴力、来自高层的威胁、以及来自底层的惊人威胁。我们拥有各种民族主义团体、激进分子、老兵、俱乐部。任何组织都可能对那些认为是俄罗斯敌人的人使用暴力。”A year ago, Andrei Kovalenko, a Russian nationalist youth leader, told a crowd of screaming supporters that if Mr Putin did not deal with a “Fifth Column” of liberal opposition figures, things would end, as in 1917, with the downfall of the regime.
一年前，俄罗斯民族主义青年领袖安德烈•科瓦连科(Andrei Kovalenko)曾向尖叫着的支持者表示，如果普京不处理自由主义反对派组成的“第五纵队”，俄罗斯政权会像1917年那样以垮台告终。“Vladimir Vladimirovich! Just give an order!” he shouted. “We can’t wait for your ‘Fass!’” he shouted, using a German-language command for dogs to attack.
“弗拉基米尔•弗拉基米罗维奇！(Vladimir Vladimirovich，此处使用了普京的父名，表示对他的尊重——译者注)只要下达一个指令就好！”他高声叫喊，“我们已经等不及您说出‘Fass！’”这是德语中命令狗去攻击他人的词语。Mr Kovalenko is a disciple of Alexander Dugin, a nationalist ideologue long seen as a marginal figure but who trumpeted after the Crimea annexation that Mr Putin was now following his line.
科瓦连科是倡导民族主义思想的理论家亚历山大•杜金(Alexander Dugin)的追随者。杜金长期以来都被视为边缘人物，但在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚后，杜金曾鼓吹称普京现在奉行着他的路线。The president encouraged such notions by echoing some of the extremists’ language. In a speech celebrating the Crimean annexation last March, he included a warning against those who might oppose it, calling them “national traitors” and a “fifth column”.
普京曾在讲话中采用了部分极端分子的措辞，从而纵容了这种观念。去年3月，普京发表了一篇庆祝吞并克里米亚的演讲，向可能反对这一做法的人发出了警告，称他们是“国家叛徒”和“第五纵队”。Meanwhile, ideologues bashing the liberal opposition have become fixtures on state media, still the main source of information for most of the Russian population. A group of prominent television and radio managers set the tone with news presentations full of insinuations. Dmitry Kiselyov, head of the state news group Rossiya Segodnya, whom the EU put on its sanctions list last year, is the most prominent.
同时，各种理论家对自由主义反对派的猛烈抨击，已成为官方媒体的固定节目。目前，俄罗斯官方媒体仍是大多数俄罗斯人获取信息的主要来源。多家著名电视台和电台主管则用充满逢迎和影射的新闻报道左右了舆论的走向。国家新闻社“今日俄罗斯”(Rossiya Segodnya)社长德米特里•基谢廖夫(Dmitry Kiselyov)是其中最突出的一个，去年他被欧盟(EU)列入制裁名单。Mr Putin’s regime has also taken the struggle to the streets. In January, a smattering of nationalist groupings, veterans’ associations and lawmakers from the pro-presidential United Russia party set up what they called a “social movement” called Anti-Maidan.
普京当局还将争斗引上了街头。今年1月，亲普京的统一俄罗斯党(United Russia)党内的少数民族主义团体、老兵协会和议员，成立了一个名为“反广场革命”组织的所谓“社会运动”。A week before Nemtsov’s death, the association staged a large-scale march with government support through Moscow. Participants pledged to fight the kind of democratic change that occurred in Ukraine, western values and anyone who would stand up for them in Russia.
在涅姆佐夫遇害前一周，该组织在全莫斯科发起了一场得到政府支持的大规模游行。参与者发誓要与乌克兰那种民主变革、与西方价值、以及与俄罗斯国内任何拥护以上两者的人作斗争。“People were openly calling from the stage to ‘take care of’ the liberals,” said Mikhail Kasyanov, a former prime minister under Mr Putin and another close associate of Nemtsov. “There were even signs saying, ‘Let’s destroy the Fifth Column’.”
“在台上，人们公开叫嚷着要‘收拾’自由主义者，”涅姆佐夫的另一位密友、曾在普京政府中担任总理的米哈伊尔•卡西亚诺夫(Mikhail Kasyanov)说，“甚至还有标语上写着，‘让我们打垮第五纵队’。”Marching in the front row was Alexander Zaldostanov, leader of the Night Wolves bikers’ group, which observers say has styled itself into crusaders for Russian greatness and Russian values.
走在游行队伍前列的是亚历山大•扎多斯塔诺夫(Alexander Zaldostanov)。他是摩托车俱乐部“夜狼”(Night Wolves)的领袖。观察家称，该俱乐部已将自身标榜成为俄罗斯的强盛和俄罗斯价值奔走的圣战组织。Mr Kasyanov said opposition leaders had faced lower-level harassment since the mid-2000s, and he and many others were followed by members of Nashi, the pro-Kremlin youth group created after the 2004 Orange revolution in Ukraine. But the Anti-Maidan movement was much more sinister.
卡西亚诺夫表示，在本世纪头十年中期，反对派领袖们开始面临更为下作的滋扰。他和其他许多人曾被支持俄政府的青年团体“纳什”（Nashi, 俄语意为“我们”）的成员跟踪。该团体成立于2004年乌克兰“橙色革命”(Orange Revolution)之后。而相比之下，“反广场革命”运动要比“纳什”邪恶得多。Ksenia Sobchak, the socialite and journalist who has floated between the establishment close to Mr Putin and the opposition, was one of the first to link this environment to Nemtsov’s death.
游走于当权的普京拥护者和反对派之间的记者和社会名流塞梅•索布恰克(Ksenia Sobchak)，是率先将这种氛围与涅姆佐夫之死联系起来的人之一。The Kremlin’s efforts to defeat the 2012 protest movement against Mr Putin through an ideological war had created a “chaos of hate,” she wrote on her blog. She added that the president had “built an infernal terminator over which he has lost control.”
她在博客里写道：克里姆林宫试图通过意识形态之战挫败2012年反普京抗议活动的举动，造成了一种“仇恨乱局”。她还补充道，普京“制造了一个他已经控制不了的可怕的终结者”。Political analysts are not surprised. Some argue that the Anti-Maidan movement is a logical continuation of the regime’s earlier attempts to steer public sentiment through groups such as Nashi.
对此，政治分析人士并不感到意外。有些人说，普京当局之前就试图通过纳什这类组织引导公众情绪，反广场革命运动是对这种努力的自然延续。Andrei Kolesnikov, from the Carnegie Moscow Center, said: “The atmosphere we have now is artificial in the sense that it has been created by the propaganda. But it is also natural in the sense that people readily accept it.”
莫斯科卡内基中心(Moscow Carnegie Center)的安德烈•科列斯尼科夫(Andrei Kolesnikov)说：“目前这种氛围是通过宣传手段营造的，从此种意义上说，这种氛围是人为的。但从，人们对此欣然接受，又表明它是自然而然产生的。”Mr Kolesnikov said the role such groups played in Russian politics and society had become similar to groupings used by the Nazi regime to intimidate and persecute opponents in the early years of its rule.
科列斯尼科夫表示，这类组织在俄罗斯政治和社会中扮演的角色，已变得和纳粹政权曾利用过的组织十分类似。在纳粹统治早期，那些组织被用来恐吓和迫害反对者。Mr Kasyanov said: “The government has to stop encouraging this propaganda, this language of traitors and the Fifth Column. If they don’t, things will become even more dangerous. It will be open season.”
卡西亚诺夫表示：“政府必须停止对这种宣传方式、对‘叛徒’和‘第五纵队’这类措辞方式的纵容。否则，事态将变得越发危险。各种攻讦言论将肆意横流。”