If the objective of a terror attack is to sow chaos, the Ankara bombing, which comes less than three weeks ahead of a bitterly contested snap election, appears to have done the job.
如果恐怖袭击的目的是制造混乱，那么安卡拉爆炸案似乎已经达到了目的。这起爆炸案距土耳其提前举行的、紧张激烈的议会选举只有不到3周时间。
A day after the deadliest attack of its kind in Turkey’s history — with as many as 128 people claimed dead by opposition politicians though official figures remain at 95 — outrage is growing amid claims of official negligence, the country’s politicians are at each others’ throats, a ceasefire between Kurdish insurgents and security forces appears to be dead in the water, and talk of a renewed civil war no longer appears to be premature.
反对派政治人士称，这起爆炸案导致多达128人死亡，尽管官方的死亡数字仍为95人。它是土耳其历史上遇难人数最多的一次恐怖袭击。惨案发生一天后，土耳其国内愤怒情绪不断高涨，人们纷纷指责政府官员失职，该国的政治人士正在互掐，库尔德反政府武装与土安全部队之间的停火似乎已经夭折，内战再起的传言似乎已不再是杞人忧天。
Instead of bringing the country together, the bombing threatens to tear it further apart, analysts say.
分析人士表示，这起爆炸案没能让土耳其团结起来，而是可能会让该国进一步分裂。
With the Kurdish south consumed by violence, the economy rapidly decelerating, and with part of the electorate intent on seeing its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as a saviour, and the other seeing him as a corrupt autocrat, Turkey is already badly, deeply divided. Any chance of that changing rapidly diminished over the weekend.
由于库尔德控制的土耳其南部地区暴力活动不断，土经济迅速恶化。一些选民倾向于将土总统雷杰普吠伊普埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)视为救世主，另一些选民则将他视为腐败的独裁者。土耳其已是严重分裂，上周末发生的事情让短时间内改变这种局面的机会变得更加渺茫。
said Sinan Ulgen of Carnegie Europe. “The degree of existing polarisation was so big that it prevented consensus.” The attack is certain to “increase the uncertainty of election results,” added analysts GlobalSource Partners in an emailed note.
卡内基欧洲分部(Carnegie Europe)的锡南踠尔根(Sinan Ulgen)表示：“现有的分歧是如此严重，共识很难达成。”GlobalSource Partners的分析师在一份电邮报告中也表示，此次袭击肯定会“加大选举结果的不确定性。”
In a statement published on Saturday, just hours after the Ankara bombing, the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) announced that it would cease armed hostilities against Turkish targets so as to calm tensions ahead of the November 1 parliamentary vote, unless it was attacked first. Clashes between the insurgents and security forces resumed in July and have since claimed hundreds of lives.
在上周六——即在安卡拉爆炸案发生几小时后——发布的一则声明中，库尔德工人党(PKK)宣布，除非自己首先遭到攻击，否则将停止针对土耳其目标的武装敌对行动，以便在11月1日的议会选举前缓和紧张局势。库尔德武装与土安全部队之间的冲突在7月重启，之后已导致数百人死亡。
The PKK’s offer appears to have fallen on deaf ears. On Sunday, the Turkish army announced that it had bombed the group’s positions in southeastern Turkey and northern Iraq. The same day, two soldiers were reported killed in clashes with the PKK in Erzurum, in the country’s east.
库尔德工人党的提议似乎未被理睬。上周日，土耳其军方宣布，它已轰炸了库尔德工人党位于土东南部以及伊拉克北部的阵地。同一天，据报道有两名土耳其士兵在该国东部埃尔祖鲁姆(Erzurum)与库尔德武装的冲突中丧生。
The resumption of those clashes, which have claimed hundreds of lives since July, appears to play into the hands of the group believed to be responsible for the Ankara bombing, Islamic State. “Isis is the party that would benefit most from this action,” said Haldun Solmazturk, a retired brigadier general in the Turkish army, referring to the attack and its aftermath.
土国内冲突再起似乎对伊拉克与黎凡特伊斯兰国(ISIS)有利。ISIS据信应对安卡拉爆炸案负责。土军退役准将哈尔敦∠尔马兹蒂尔克(Haldun Solmazturk)在提到这起爆炸案及其后果时表示：“这次行动的最大受益者将是ISIS。”
On the one hand, Mr Solmazturk says, the group appears to be forcing Turkey to think twice about further involvement in Syria. On the other, it is trying to distract the Kurds, its most formidable foes on the ground, by fanning the flames of its conflict with Turkey. By pitting one of its enemies against the other, says Mr Solmazturk, “it is killing two birds with one stone”.
索尔马兹蒂尔克表示，一方面，ISIS似乎正迫使土耳其重新考虑对叙利亚的进一步干预；另一方面，该组织正通过加剧库尔德人与土耳其的冲突，来分散库尔德武装的注意力。库尔德武装是ISIS在地面战中最可怕的敌人。索尔马兹蒂尔克表示，通过让ISIS的敌人互相打斗，“该组织正一箭双雕”。
Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence Whatever the result of the elections, the fallout from the Ankara attack will be hard to contain, especially as the fight between the PKK and the state threatens to spill over into sectarian conflict. “Whether this crisis will unfold in an outright disaster for the country’s political and economic stability,” Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence,said, “is now a matter of when rather than if.”
不管选举结果如何，安卡拉爆炸案的后果很难控制，特别是在库尔德工人党和土政府之间的斗争可能蔓延为教派冲突之际。Teneo Intelligence的分析师沃尔夫安戈皮科利(Wolfango Piccoli)表示：“说到这场危机会不会演变为该国政治经济稳定面临的一场严重灾难，现在看来这已不是一个会不会的问题，而是何时会的问题。”