Death by a thousand cuts originated in China. For investors in renminbi assets, it is staging something of a comeback. Since mid-August last year, when China allowed its currency to weaken by 2 per cent in one day, the renminbi has slipped 6 per cent. On Monday, China’s finance ministry confirmed that it would sell Rmb3tn ($458m) of renminbi bonds in London in the largest offshore listing since 2011. The outlook for the currency will be a significant factor for potential buyers.
“凌迟处死”起源于中国。人民币资产的投资者似乎尝到了这种极刑的滋味。自去年8月中旬中国让人民币在一天内贬值2%以来，人民币汇率累计已经下跌6%。周一，中国财政部证实将在伦敦发行30亿元人民币（合4.58亿美元）债券，这将是自2011年以来最大的离岸债券发行。对潜在买家来说，人民币前景将是一大考虑因素。
The good news for bond buyers is that an outright devaluation of the renminbi is unlikely. The past few years of currency strength have helped China rebalance towards consumer spending. Deliberate devaluation would undermine this and damage the government’s credibility. As global demand stagnates, any boost to exports would probably prove insufficient to offset these detrimental impacts.
债券买家的好消息是，人民币彻底贬值的可能性不大。过去几年人民币走强，已帮助中国经济再平衡，转向在更大程度上依赖消费支出。故意贬值会破坏这一点，并损害政府的公信力。随着全球需求停滞，任何对出口的提振很可能被证明不足以抵消这些不利影响。
Involuntary devaluation may seem more likely. Yet China has fought hard to protect its currency from those trying to force it down. And, despite capital flight diminishing its firepower, Fitch Ratings notes that China’s current account surplus still goes a long way to help plug the leaks and shore up foreign exchange reserves.
非自愿贬值似乎更有可能。然而，中国一直在努力捍卫人民币，挫败那些试图迫使其贬值的投机者。而且，尽管资本外流减少了中国官方的火力，但惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)指出，中国的经常账户盈余依然有助于堵塞泄漏，支撑外汇储备。
Still, China’s redback is bound to depreciate. It is expensive against other currencies — as the shopping exodus from China partly attests. HSBC reckons that against an inflation-adjusted average since 2006, the renminbi could be as much as 15 per cent overvalued. This has to change, the more so now that the US rate cycle is on a tightening bias while China’s slowing economy argues for a looser monetary policy.
话说回来，人民币必然会贬值。目前它的汇率相对于其他货币偏高——中国人热衷于在境外购物就是部分证明。汇丰(HSBC)估计，相对于自2006年以来经通胀因素调整的平均水平，人民币币值可能高估了高达15%。这种局面必然会改变，更何况现在美国利率周期进入收紧阶段，而中国经济放缓呼唤着更加宽松的货币政策。
While China is fearful of encouraging a run on the renminbi, the merciful approach might in fact be a swift exchange rate adjustment large enough to be convincingly one-off. Skittish Chinese savers, with few investment choices at home and facing the prospect of a weaker currency, crowd the exits each time the renminbi ticks down. An overnight markdown might not prevent all flight, but it would remove a major incentive for assets trickling offshore. Meanwhile, low levels of foreign denominated debt are manageable. If the bond issue gets away, then China’s ability to borrow offshore in renminbi will strengthen this position still further. A more merciful end to the renminbi’s drawn-out decline is worth considering.
虽然中国担心会鼓励资本外流，但仁慈的做法实际上可能是进行迅速的汇率调整，并且幅度大到足以令人相信它是一次性的。目前，紧张的中国储户面对国内极少的投资选择和人民币贬值的前景，每次人民币小幅走低都会推动他们竞相把资金转移到海外。在一夜之间下调汇率也许不能完全阻止资本外流，但它将消除把人民币资产源源不断转移到海外的一大诱因。与此同时，外币债务水平较低，处于可控范围。如果上述债券发行顺利完成，中国在境外借入人民币债务的能力将进一步加强这一状态。以更为仁慈的方式终结人民币没完没了的走低是值得考虑的。