善于蛊惑民心的杜特尔特

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善于蛊惑民心的杜特尔特

Rodrigo Duterte has barely been in power a hundred days, but he has already made more news in that time than some leaders do in their entire terms of office.

罗德里戈•杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)上台执政还不到100天,但他已经制造了比一些领导人整个任期还多的新闻。

The Philippine president has launched a bloody war on drugs, threatened the country’s linchpin alliance with the US and hit the headlines with stinging remarks about targets ranging from Barack Obama to the UN.

这位菲律宾总统发起了一场血腥的反毒品战争,威胁要终结与美国的关键联盟,并因对巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)和联合国(UN)等对象出言不逊而屡登新闻头条。

He has been compared to Donald Trump and has likened himself to Adolf Hitler.

他被外界比作唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump),却自比阿道夫•希特勒(Adolf Hitler)。

The outrage caused by Mr Duterte’s apparently uncontrollable furies has masked the canny manoeuvring of a veteran politician who swept to a surprise landslide election victory in May.

杜特尔特在5月总统大选中出人意料地获得了压倒性胜利,但他看似控制不住的怒火引发的义愤,掩盖了他作为一名老练政客的狡猾操弄。

His sales pitch mixes populism of the socially progressive left and the authoritarian right with a stand-up comedian’s urge to entertain — not to mention a blitheness about causing offence.

他的政治宣传将左翼社会层面进步的民粹主义、威权主义右翼与单口相声演员哗众取宠的强烈欲望混杂在一起——且不提对于冒犯别人满不在乎。

The Philippines audience appreciates the overall effect, whereas the international observers focus on the most insane comments, says Richard Javad Heydarian, a Philippine political analyst, who identifies what he calls the three Dutertes: showman, punisher and power-playing Machiavelli.

菲律宾政治分析人士理查德•贾瓦德•海达里恩(Richard Javad Heydarian)称:菲律宾民众看重整体效果,但国际观察家们关注的是那些最疯狂的言论。他总结出了三面杜特尔特:表演者、惩罚者、玩弄权术的马基雅维利(Machiavelli)。

That’s why he remains popular, but the world is revolted by him.

这就是他仍然很受欢迎的原因,但世界对他感到恶心。

The 71-year-old Mr Duterte’s combative performance over the past week or so could serve as a microcosm of his presidency so far.

71岁的杜特尔特过去一周左右的好斗表现是他总统任期迄今的一个缩影。

On Sunday, he was saying sorry for the Hitler remarks, in which he said he would be glad to kill millions of drug addicts.

周日,他对自比希特勒——表示乐意杀死数百万吸毒者——作出道歉。

By Tuesday, he was telling Mr Obama to go to hell and predicting that Manila would swap its military bearhug with the US for arms deals with Beijing and Moscow, potentially offering a chance for a territory-hungry China to dominate the sea of Southeast Asia.

周二,他骂奥巴马下地狱吧,并表示马尼拉将用与北京和莫斯科的军火交易取代与美国的密切军事合作——可能为渴求领土的中国主导东南亚海洋提供契机。

On Thursday, an independent opinion poll suggested more than three-quarters of Filipinos were satisfied with their shoot-from-the-hip leader’s performance so far.

周四,一项独立的民意调查显示,超过四分之三的菲律宾人对这位行事鲁莽的领导人的表现感到满意。

Important clues to understanding Mr Duterte are to be found in his upbringing on the conflict-racked southern island of Mindanao.

理解杜特尔特的重要线索,可以从他在菲律宾南部饱受冲突的棉兰老岛成长的经历找到。

He is the son of a fortune-seeking politician, Vicente Duterte, who served as governor of the province of Davao between 1959 and 1965.

他的父亲是投机钻营的政客维森特•杜特尔特(Vicente Duterte),曾在1959年至1965年担任达沃省(Davao)省长。

Walden Bello, an academic and former Philippine legislator, says Mr Duterte is a product of the rough-and-tumble world of frontier politics in an area where there have been long-running Islamist and communist insurgencies.

菲律宾前议员、学者瓦尔登•贝洛(Walden Bello)表示,杜特尔特是长期受伊斯兰主义和共产党叛乱影响地区的边疆政治混乱世界的产物。

The future president, an unmarried father of four children from previous relationships, first became mayor of Davao city in 1988, going on to serve in the post for more than 20 years.

离异的杜特尔特是四个孩子的父亲,这位未来的总统自1988年开始担任达沃市市长,并在这一职位上任职20多年。

His ruthless crackdown on crime earned him popular support and the nickname Duterte Harry.

对犯罪的重拳出击为他赢得了广泛支持以及杜特尔特哈里这个绰号。

When human rights groups claimed that death squads he supported were responsible for the deaths of 700 people, Mr Duterte retorted without shame that the number was more like 1,700.

当人权组织宣称他支持的行刑队要对700人的死亡负责时,杜特尔特毫无羞耻地反驳称,这一数字更接近1700人。

He has now taken the unapologetically tough-sheriff act to the presidential palace.

如今,他将这种张扬的酷吏作法带到了总统府。

This has had a dramatic impact on foreign policy, where Mr Duterte has softened the previous administration’s hardline opposition to China’s maritime claims and has bridled against western criticism of his human rights record.

这对菲律宾的外交政策产生了巨大的影响,杜特尔特软化了上届政府反对中国海权主张的强硬立场,并且不客气地驳斥西方对他的人权记录的批评。

He’s the kind of guy who identifies his persona with the state, and sees criticism of himself and his policies as undermining Philippine sovereignty, Mr Bello says.

他是把自身的人格形象等同于国家的一类人,把针对他本人及其政策的批评视为削弱菲律宾的主权,贝洛说。

I think that’s what attracts him to China — the way the Chinese reject any criticism of their human rights record as an attack on Chinese sovereignty.

我认为,这正是中国吸引他的地方——中国拒绝接受任何对其人权记录的批评,并视之为对国家主权的攻击。

Another significant piece in the Duterte puzzle is his training as a lawyer and his cultivation of friendships and alliances with figures on the political left, some of whom have become ministers in his government.

理解杜特尔特的另一个重要部分是他作为律师接受的训练,以及他与左翼政治人物培养的友谊和联盟,其中一些人在杜特尔特政府中担任部长职务。

He has shown a common touch in promising measures to improve the everyday lives of ordinary Filipinos by restarting delayed rail projects and easing Manila’s notorious traffic gridlock.

通过重启延期的铁路项目、缓解马尼拉严重的交通拥堵,他在承诺采取措施改善菲律宾的民生方面表现出了接地气的一面。

Mr Duterte has also made the long and apparently intractable Mindanao peace process a priority and is trying to exploit his relationships with insurgency leaders.

与此同时,杜特尔特已将旷日持久且看似极为棘手的棉兰老岛和平进程列为工作重点,而且正在设法利用自己与叛乱领导人的关系。

He has claimed Muslim heritage and even chanted Allahu akbar — God is great — while campaigning for the presidency.

他曾吹嘘自己有穆斯林血统,甚至在竞选总统时高呼真主至大。

Mr Heydarian recalls asking only half-jokingly at a conference: What if he gets nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize?

海达里恩回忆曾在一次会议上半开玩笑地问道:如果他被提名诺贝尔和平奖会怎样?

The president’s most striking policy so far is a drug crackdown that has led to the deaths of more than 3,000 people, an estimated half of them killed extrajudicially.

到目前为止,杜特尔特最引人注目的政策是向毒品开战,这一行动已导致逾3000人死亡,其中约一半人系遭到法外处决。

He has struck a popular chord because the country’s narcotics problem is undeniably huge and previous efforts to deal with it have failed, often falling prey to corruption.

他这样做引发了公众的共鸣,因为菲律宾的毒品问题无疑非常严重,而且此前的反毒努力都失败了,常常沦为腐败的牺牲品。

The tendency of otherwise decent human beings in dire straits to excuse brutal behaviour towards others has done the rest.

于是总体正派的人们在绝望之下为针对别人的暴力行为寻找借口。

I know it’s not right, said one Filipina, who asked not to be named, of a drugs war in which she described the deaths of innocents as necessary sacrifices.

我知道这样不对,一位不愿透露姓名的菲律宾女士说,她将禁毒战争中无辜者的死亡称为必要的牺牲。

But we have to do something.

但我们不得不有所行动。

And we have to be tough.

而且我们必须强硬。

As long such views prevail, Mr Duterte may continue to ride high.

只要这种观点占据上风,杜特尔特就可能继续春风得意。

The risk for him is that his brazenness, geopolitical gambles and the dark side of his character will overwhelm him.

他面临的风险是,他的魄性、地缘政治赌博以及性格中的阴暗面会将他压垮。

He is still enjoying a political honeymoon and setting his course.

他仍在享受政治蜜月期,可以设置自己的议程。

There is plenty of time for public disillusionment with this most volatile of leaders to set in.

来日方长,公众有大把时间对这名极不稳定的领导人幻想破灭。