人口暴增 伦敦土地稀缺之殇

词汇语 人气:3.01W

Compare two ways of earning the same amount in London. The first is to work. A job in one of the capital’s thriving industries will on average pay about 35,000. The second is to own enough office space for a few desks in the city’s West End. Just 17 sq m currently yields about the same amount.

请比较一下在伦敦赚到相同数额的钱的两种方式。第一种是工作。在伦敦蓬勃发展的行业找一份工作,平均薪水约为3.5万英镑。第二种是在伦敦西区(West End)拥有一套足够放几张桌子的办公用房。按照最近的行情,只要拥有17平米就能赚到差不多相同数额的钱。

人口暴增 伦敦土地稀缺之殇

Despite Britain registering deflation for the first time in half a century, its capital remains an expensive place to do business. The overriding cause is expensive property. Even against other global centres, the cost of renting an office or roof over one’s head is steep.

尽管英国刚出现了半个世纪以来的首次通缩,但其首都仍然是一个昂贵的经商地点。最主要的原因是高昂的房地产价格。即使是与全球其他几个中心相比,在伦敦租赁一间办公室或住房的成本也相当高昂。

To superficial eyes this is a badge of success. Cities teetering on the brink of failure, such as Detroit, are often studded by boarded-up houses and empty business districts. London can charge so much because it is an excellent place to work. Alongside financial services, the city is a global hub for the creative industries, law and even high-value manufacturing.

表面上看来,这是成功的标志。底特律等濒临破产边缘的城市中,通常布满了木板房和空荡荡的商业区。伦敦的租金之所以能收那么高,是因为这里是绝佳的工作地点。除了金融服务,伦敦还是创意产业、法律、甚至高附加值制造业的全球中心。

Yet this high demand to work and live in Britain’s capital only makes more abject its failure to provide sufficient space. What is more, the scarcity of land for development is artificial, and largely comes down to politics.

不过,这种在英国首都工作和居住的高需求,只是使它无法提供足够空间的问题显得更加令人遗憾。更重要的是,用于开发的土地稀缺是人为造成的,而且在很大程度上要归咎于政治。

The Conservatives sailed into power on a wave of promises that would boost the demand for property, such as inheritance tax breaks and an ill-received idea for selling off social housing. Since the election, developers’ share prices have risen and estate agents’ phones rung hot with inquiries from overseas buyers. Surprised at the scale of their victory, the Tory government might not have expected to enact many of its measures.

保守党(Conservatives)借着提振房地产需求的承诺执掌了权力,比如遗产税优惠和一个令人难以接受的想法——出售公屋。自大选以来,地产开发商的股价一路上涨,房地产经纪人的电话被来电咨询的海外买家打得发烫。惊讶于此次大获全胜的保守党政府,此前也许没有预料到其要将竞选时提出的很多措施付诸实施。

Now, to stop prices spiralling further out of sight the government must supplement its populism with a proper strategy to close the gap between demand and supply, starting with London. It can learn from others’s past failures: the Swedish National Bank tried to quench the roaring property market in Stockholm through its monetary stance, damaging the rest of the economy. Other tools are not available to the UK: Singapore owns 80 per cent of the homes its population inhabits. Like Hong Kong, it imposes restrictions on foreign buyers with which London should be ill at ease.

如今,为了避免价格进一步攀升至遥不可及的高度,政府必须在民粹主义之外拿出适当的策略来弥合需求和供应之间的差距,从伦敦开始。它可以从其他国家过去的失败中学到教训:瑞典央行(Swedish National Bank)曾尝试通过货币政策给斯德哥尔摩飙涨的房地产市场降温,但损害了经济的其他部分。还有些工具是英国没有的:新加坡有80%人口居住在政府提供的组屋里。再比如香港,那里限制外国人买房,而伦敦应该无法坦然接受这种做法。

In contrast to Manhattan or Singapore, London is not an island and has no physical reason for limiting the supply of land. But releasing more for development will take courage. Much of the land needed is derelict but nevertheless marked as “greenbelt”. This inspires misguided environmental protectionism from an array of bodies determined to protect every last scrap. Even without such organisation, existing property owners create a fearsome political block. Many of London’s citizens have become wealthy owning houses that are collectively worth 1.5tn. They also savour the rules that bear down on congestion, keep the view uncluttered and hold back the sprawl typical in cities elsewhere. Opposition to development seeds many a political campaign.

与曼哈顿或新加坡相比,伦敦并不是一个岛屿,并没有必须限制土地供应的客观原因。但是,释放更多土地用于开发需要勇气。很多亟需的土地都是荒地但却被标记为“绿地”。这激起了大批被误导的环保团体的热情,它们决心保护每一寸仅存的绿地。即使没有此类机构,现有的房地产业主也构成一个令人望而生畏的政治障碍。很多伦敦市民已变得富有,他们拥有的房产总价值达到1.5万亿英镑。他们还青睐那些旨在减轻拥堵、保持城市景观和谐以及阻止城市出现无序扩张常见病的规定。许多政治游说都源于反对土地开发。

Against these, the victims of insufficient development are voiceless and dispersed: families in cramped accommodation, workers slogging in on a long commute and younger people kept from a promising career by the lack of a wealthy relative. These also feed through to business costs.

相比这些人,承受土地开发不足之痛的人发不出声音,也缺乏组织:住所狭小的家庭、长途通勤的工人、以及因为没有富有的亲戚而无法拥有前途光明的职业的年轻人。这些也转化为商业成本。

The Conservatives have launched their new spell in government with the aspiration to govern for one nation, and do all they can for business. For the former they will need to heal the fissure in British society caused by the sheer expense of living in London. As for business, no single measure could save companies more than bringing down rents in the capital city.

怀着“为着同一个国家执政”(govern for one nation)和竭尽全力促进营商的抱负,保守党已经开始新一届任期。就前一个抱负而言,他们需要修复伦敦高昂生活成本在英国社会中造成的裂缝。就营商而言,没有哪一项措施能比降低首都的租金成本更能拯救企业