Is the Earth running out of minerals?
地球上的矿产资源是否即将告罄？A recent and widely publicized proposal to mine asteroids for nickel, platinum and other key ingredients for metals is based in part on the notion that we face scarcity in the not-too-distant future.
一项在小行星上开采镍、铂和其他重要金属元素的提议近期得到广为宣传，该提议在一定程度上是基于这样一种认识，即：在不远的将来我们将面临矿产资源短缺的局面。How much is a matter of debate, as is the capacity of sonar, radar and drilling technology to find new resources - which may not match civilization's ever-growing appetite for metal-based products from replacement knee joints and oil pipes to catalytic converters and iPads.
至于资源缺口究竟有多大，目前人们的看法还存在分歧，同样，人们对声纳、雷达和钻探技术发现新资源能力的看法也不一致──地球上的资源可能无法满足人类对膝关节假体、油管、催化转换器和iPad等金属产品不断增长的需求。
Investors led by Google Inc. Chief Executive Larry Page and film director James Cameron in April launched Planetary Resources Inc., based in Bellevue, Wash., with a message that the Earth's resources could soon fail to meet the technological needs of a population spiraling toward 10 billion.
以谷歌(Google Inc.)首席执行长佩奇(Larry Page)和电影导演卡梅隆(James Cameron)为首的投资者4月份在华盛顿州贝尔维尤(Bellevue)建立了太空采矿公司行星资源公司(Planetary Resources Inc.)。该公司的建立向人们传递了这样一个信息：随着世界人口逼近100亿，地球上的资源可能很快就无法满足人类的技术需求了。Caterpillar Inc., one of the world's largest makers of mining equipment, has already joined with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to design space-mining gear. "We looked at autonomous operations of equipment as being the same type of technology that could be used on the moon as well as in a mining application," said Michele Blubaugh, manager of Intelligence Technology Services at Caterpillar.
全球最大的采矿设备生产商之一卡特彼勒公司(Caterpillar Inc.)已与美国国家航空航天局(National Aeronautics and Space Administration)联手设计太空采矿装置。卡特彼勒旗下Intelligence Technology Services主管布卢鲍(Michele Blubaugh)称，“我们认为设备自主操作技术既能应用于月球也能应用于采矿。”But firms that make their money mining this planet say the Earth is one big, practically inexhaustible mine, with just as many unexplored corners as outer space. "We think there are 10,000 more years of minerals left for civilization," said Andrew McKenzie, a geologist and BHP Billiton PLC's chief executive for nonferrous metals. "Civilization will change, of course, and there will be different minerals involved, but 10,000 more years."
但在地球上采矿挣钱的公司则表示，地球是一个几乎取之不尽的巨大矿山，地球上尚未开发的角落与外太空一样多。地质学家、必和必拓(BHP Billiton PLC)有色金属业务首席执行长麦肯齐(Andrew McKenzie)称，“我们认为地球上的矿产资源可供人类再使用一万年以上。当然，人类文明会发生变化，会使用不同的矿物，但一万多年是相当长的一段时间。”Some minerals are more plentiful and some parts of the world more endowed. The world has plenty of potash - 610 years worth, which ensures centuries more of fertilizer-making, and 590 years of known iron-ore reserves, according to U.S. Geological Survey estimates. Overall, the earth has about 136 years of copper but just a small proportion of it in Australia, which could supply the planet for only a few years, according to the U.S.G.S.
无论是从种类和地理位置来看，全球矿产资源的分布都是不均衡的。美国地质调查局(U.S. Geological Survey)估计，地球上有大量钾盐──可供人类使用610年，能确保未来多个世纪的化肥生产所需，此外，已知铁矿石储量可供人类使用590年。美国地质调查局称，总体来看，地球上拥有可供人类使用约136年的铜资源，但其中仅有一小部分分布在澳大利亚，只能再供地球使用几年。而南美洲拥有的铜矿资源则占全球剩余铜储量的一半左右。此外，这些数值是根据采矿公司列入具体开采计划的储量估算出来的──明显低于埋藏在地壳内部的庞大储量。South America, on the other hand, has roughly half of all copper reserves left for global supply. And those estimates are of what mining companies have concrete plans to get at - numbers that are significantly lower than the colossal quantities of reserves buried in the Earth's crust.
按照化学家的说法，如果有人有兴趣在海洋中采矿的话，那么他们可以开采出1,000万吨黄金，价值超过500万亿美元。二十世纪二十年代，德国化学家、诺贝尔奖得主哈伯(Fritz Haber)认为，从海洋中开采到的黄金可能足以偿还德国在第一次世界大战中欠下的债务。不过他没能成功说服政府去尝试他的想法。If anyone was interested in sifting the oceans, they could recover 10 million tons of gold, worth over $500 trillion, according to chemists. In the 1920s, German chemist Fritz Haber, a Nobel Prize winner, thought it possible to extract enough gold from oceans to pay his country's debt after World War I. He was unsuccessful at even convincing governments to try his idea.
总部位于加拿大安大略省萨德伯里(Sudbury)的采矿公司HTX Minerals Corp.的首席执行长麦克莱恩(Scott McLean)称，“很难想象人类将依靠太空中的小行星来满足地球上的金属需求。”他说，这个想法“很有意思，考虑这些问题是颇有远见的，”但他的结论是：“地球的矿产资源取之不尽，还能供人类使用几千年。”