I am starting to think marketers and astrologers have more in common than meets the eye. We are both asked to stargaze and look into the future on a regular basis. Every year around this time, I see similar emails from clients and reporters alike, all wanting to know what 2014 holds in store. Luckily, I don’t need the stars to predict what comes next because technology always leaves telltale signs. Here are the Top 5 Digital Trends you can look forward to for 2014.
我开始思考这样一个问题：营销人员和占星家之间的共同点比表面上看起来的要多。这两种人都会要求我们经常性地凝望星空、望向未来。每年的这个时候，我都会收到客户和记者发来的类似邮件，他们都想知道2014年会发生些什么。幸运的是，我并不需要夜观星象来预测接下来会发生的事，因为科技总是会留下一些明显的迹象。以下便是2014年你将可能发现的五大数字趋势。1) An Identity Based Eco-System. As a graduate student at the University of Texas at Austin, I did my thesis on Twitter. (No, it wasn’t in 140 characters.) One of the pivotal questions of my thesis was this: Why do people use social networking sites at all? My incorrect hypothesis was that people wanted to connect to each other. My research revealed that this was only the secondary reason. The primary reason was to showcase their own identity. I’ll pause while you give a moment’s thought to the narcissism of society. Then, I’ll urge you to think deeper. We, as humans, have always had an innate need to express ourselves. By that very expression, we further our identity. Smart companies, such as Facebook (with their timeline feature) and Amazon (with their personalized recommendations) are already taking advantage of what I refer to as an Identity Based Eco-System. The digital world of tomorrow, be it consumer or business, will revolve around the individual identity. The companies who want to take advantageof this trend will proactively create ways to harness the idea that showcasing our identity is the most human and primary of desires.
1）基于身份的生态系统。在我还是得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校研究生的时候，我的论文主题是Twitter（不，这篇论文并非只有140个字）。我论文中讨论的一个重要问题是：为什么人们会使用社交网站？我不甚正确的假设是，人们想要彼此进行联系。但我所做的调研发现，这仅仅是第二重要的原因。第一重要的原因是展示自己的身份。我会在这里顿一顿，给你点时间思考下这个社会的自恋情结。然后，我会敦促你更深入地思考。作为人类的我们总有一种天生的表达自己的需求。通过这种表达，我们进一步深化了自己的身份。聪明的公司，如Facebook（以及他们的时间轴功能）和亚马逊（以及他们的个性化推荐功能）已经在着手利用我所说的这种“基于身份的生态系统”。明天的数字世界，无论是消费者的还是企业的，都将围绕着个人身份展开活动。想要利用这一趋势的公司将会积极主动地创造各种方法，来利用这一观点：展示我们的身份是最最普遍也是最最基础的欲望。2) Content Curation and Aggregation. Remember the movie You’ve Got Mail, with Meg Ryan and Tom Hanks? It was a blockbuster hit and romantic comedy at its best. But, they can never create a remake of that movie. Why? Because no one is that excited to receive email anymore! We have gone from an information hungry to an information overloaded society. However, we still require information on a daily basis – now more than ever. Hence, we see the rise of websites such as Pinterest, Quora, and . Pinterest is technically nothing more than an organization system for images which already exist, but because we desperately need that system for aggregation, it is a success.
2） 内容管理和聚合。还记得梅格?瑞恩（Meg Ryan）和汤姆?汉克斯（Tom Hanks）主演的电影《电邮情缘》（You’ve Got Mail）吗？这是一部票房大片，也是浪漫喜剧的巅峰之作。然而，现在再也不可能重拍该片了。为什么？因为没人会为收到邮件而激动不已了！我们早已经从信息饥渴社会过渡到了信息过量社会。然而，我们仍然每天都需要信息——比以往任何时候都要多。因此，我们看到了诸如Pinterest、Quora和等网站的兴起。Pinterest从技术上来说不过是将早已存在的图像组织起来而已，但是由于我们非常需要这种聚合系统，它获得了巨大成功。
3) Video = Device Agnostic. When was the last time you uttered the phrase “I am watching video on television.” Chances are you may watch a video on TV, but you may just as easily be watching it on your tablet or smart phone. Video continues to become device agnostic. (Much to my chagrin, my husband takes advantage of this fact by pausing the episode on TV only to continue it on his tablet at the restaurant. I’ll save the net etiquette for spouses article for later.) From a business standpoint, online video will continue to play a bigger role in the digital space.
3） 视频=设备不可知。你上一次说“我在电视上看视频”是什么时候？更可能的是，你会在电视上看视频，但你也可以很方便地在平板电脑或智能手机上看视屏。视频持续着其设备不可知的特性。（令我懊恼的是，我丈夫利用了这一事实，他会给电视上播放的剧集按下暂停键，为的是稍后在餐厅用平板电脑接着看。有关夫妇间网络礼仪的事宜，我稍后另外撰文详述吧。）从商业角度来说，在线视频将继续在数字世界中扮演更为重要的角色。4) The 4 Screen Revolution. The last Super Bowl showcased this trend better than any other event. While people watched the game on TV, they were checking their work email on the computer for the next day, tweeting about the game on their tablet, and texting their friends at the same time. The number of screens we are used to will only increase with time. When I say screen, I don’t necessarily mean a solid box. Google glass would also qualify as a screen. Any surface (tangible or not) which you interact with can be considered a screen. Look for advertising to innovate as the available surfaces, on which to interact, increase.
4）四屏革命。最近一次的超级碗比其他任何活动都要更好地表明了这一趋势。当人们在电视上观看比赛时，他们同时还在电脑上查看第二天的工作邮件、用平板电脑发与比赛相关的推文，同时还在给朋友发短信。我们所能习惯的屏幕数量只会随着时间的推移而增加。我所说的“屏幕”并不一定就是指实实在在的方盒子。谷歌眼镜也能算是一块屏幕。你能与之进行互动的任何表面（有形的或是无形的）都可以视作是屏幕。随着各种可进行互动的表面种类的增加，期待广告界推出各种创新吧！5) Social Literacy Skills Required. Social media literacy will be required by companies for most jobs, but especially for the C-Suite. It expands beyond understanding social platforms to making the digital landscape an inherent part of your professional repertoire. As a skill set, social media literacy will be divided into two areas – personal and organizational. On the personal level, professionals will have to know how to create content, curate relevant information, and connect people and resources. On an organizational level, agility (in thought and strategy), the ability to aggregate multiple points of data for decision making, and authenticity (the real deal, not the perception) will be required.
5）社交网络能力是必备。公司的大部分招聘职位将要求应聘者拥有社交媒体能力，对高管职位来说尤其如此。这一能力不仅仅是要能理解社交平台，以使数字能力成为你职业素养中一个固有的部分。社交媒体能力作为一整套技能，将被划分成两个层面——个人及组织。在个人层面上，专业人士必须要知道如何创建内容、管理相关信息，并将人和资源联系在一起。在组织层面上，则要求有灵活性（在思维和战略上）——整合各方数据以用于决策制定的能力——和真实性（实实在在的交易，而不是想法）。As I gaze into my digital crystal ball, one thing is certain. 2014 is sure to be an exciting year on the digital front.
当我凝视着我的数字水晶球时，有一件事是肯定的。2014年必将成为数字前沿令人激动的一年。