Despite the seeming disarray of his first month in office, President Donald Trump has remarkably kept many of his campaign promises. However, one of his most frequent — naming China as a currency manipulator — is as yet mere words.
尽管上任第一个月似乎给世人带来了混乱感，但美国总统唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)显然信守了他的多项竞选承诺。然而，他最经常提到的承诺——把中国列为货币操纵国——到现在还未付诸行动。The new administration is holding back America’s leadership in global governance, as shown by the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Mr Trump and his close advisers believe bilateral deals are a better way to achieve “America First” — so why are they not chasing China? I believe they have not yet worked out how to gain over China through such pacts.
美国新的行政当局正在收缩美国在全球治理中的领导地位，美国退出《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)证明了这一点。特朗普和他的亲密顾问认为，双边协定是实现“美国优先”(America first)原则的更佳途径——那么，他们为何没有对中国采取行动呢？ 我相信，他们是还没想出如何通过此类协定在中国问题上获益的方法。Many in the US hold that China has reaped disproportionate advantages through globalisation, and that millions of American jobs have been lost due to imports from the country. In academic circles, most economists believe this is an inevitable cost of globalisation and the only way out for the US is to shift the population from lost jobs to new jobs in high-end services and high-tech industries. Mr Trump and his advisers take a more hawkish view that Beijing has gained by manipulating its currency, suppressing wages, subsidising exporters and disregarding the environment. As a result, it should be punished.
许多美国人认为，中国从全球化中获得了过大的好处，从中国进口商品导致数百万美国人失去了工作。在学术界，多数经济学家认为，这是全球化的一种不可避免的代价，美国的唯一出路是把人口从消失的岗位转移配置到高端服务业和高技术行业的新增岗位上。特朗普和手下顾问持有一种更强硬的观点：北京方面通过操纵汇率、压低工资、补贴出口商和忽视环境，获得了好处。所以，中国应该受到惩罚。
Certainly, the US has ways to punish China. Naming it a currency manipulator alone would make Beijing lose face — which it cares about. Imposing punitive tariffs on Chinese exports and restricting mergers and acquisitions, particularly from state-owned enterprises, are other options. That is why many international observers believe a trade war between the two countries is inevitable.
当然，美国拥有惩罚中国的手段。单单把中国列为汇率操纵国就会让中国丢脸——中国很看重脸面。其他手段有：对中国出口征收惩罚性关税；限制中国企业、尤其是中国的国企对美国企业发起并购。这就是许多国际观察人士认定美中之间的贸易战在所难免的原因。But what would the US gain by punishing China?
但是，惩罚中国会让美国得到什么好处？Punitive tariffs will hurt US consumers. One of the big advantages of being an American is being able to enjoy the lowest priced goods produced in virtually every corner of the world. Americans buy Chinese goods because they are often the cheapest; making them more expensive might force Americans to buy from other countries, but not necessarily the US.
惩罚性关税将伤害美国消费者。身为美国人的一大优势，是能够享受到世界几乎每个角落生产出来的最低价商品。美国人购买中国商品，是因为后者的价格经常是最低的；让中国商品变得更贵，也许会迫使美国人去购买其他国家的产品，但未必是美国本国产品。Such measures will not help American workers, either. The kind of jobs that would be targeted are not likely to return to the US. Apple’s iPhone causes several billion dollars of deficit for America’s trade with China. But, suppose Apple moves the iPhone factories to the US; will there be enough Americans willing to work on the assembly lines even in the jobs left by increased automation?
这类措施也帮不到美国工人。这类措施意欲夺回的工作岗位不太可能回到美国。苹果(Apple)的iPhone给美国的对华贸易造成数十亿美元的逆差。但是，假如苹果把iPhone工厂搬到美国，会有足够多的美国人愿意待在装配线上，哪怕是从事自动化仍未替代的工作吗？Finally, American companies will not gain — indeed, many will be hurt. Some 40 per cent of the Chinese trade surplus with the US is created by American companies operating in China (another 20 per cent is created by other foreign companies working in China). If Chinese exporters are penalised, those companies will also be punished. And, if China retaliates, companies on both sides will lose.
最后，美国公司不会得利——事实上，许多美国公司将受损。在中国对美贸易顺差中，大约40%是由在华经营的美国公司创造出来的（另有20%是其他在华经营的外资公司创造的）。如果中国出口商受到惩罚，那么那些公司也将受到惩罚。如果中国发起报复，中美两国企业都会蒙受损失。That the Trump administration has not devised a strategy to deal with China is certainly due in part to those uncertainties. A rational person does not hurt others for the joy of it. Mr Trump has to find ways to make China yield to American interests — he has to come up with deals that advance mutual gains. Here are some of them.
特朗普政府尚未制定出与中国打交道的战略，在一定程度上当然是因为那些不确定性。理智的人不会为了伤害别人的快感而去做这件事。特朗普必须想方设法让中国顺从美国的利益——他必须拿出对双方都有好处的交易。以下是一些这样的交易。First, the two countries can sit down and talk about the exchange rate. Mr Trump accuses China of manipulating the renminbi. In one and half years, Beijing has lost about $1tn in foreign reserves defending the value of the currency. The two countries have a common interest in preventing further devaluation of the renminbi, creating opportunities for monetary co-ordination such as a slower pace of US interest rate rises and tighter border control of Chinese capital outflows.
首先，两国可以坐下来，谈谈汇率问题。特朗普指责中国操纵人民币汇率。在一年半时间里，中国已经为保卫人民币汇率损耗了约1万亿美元的外汇储备。两国在防止人民币进一步贬值、创造机会来协调两国的货币政策（比如美国放慢加息步伐、中国收紧对资本外流的边境管控）方面拥有共同利益。Second, talks on a bilateral investment treaty should be revived. The bottleneck is the “negative list” of sectors in which China would continue to restrict foreign investment. There are still many irrational regulations governing the Chinese economy, including those restricting foreign investment in high-end services. A short negative list would help American companies because high-end services are arguably one of the US’s strong points. In addition, the BIT will smooth the path of Chinese companies in the US and encourage them to invest more there.
其次，应当恢复关于《双边投资协定》(BIT)的谈判。瓶颈在于一份“负面清单”，中国将继续限制外资进入这份清单上的行业。目前中国经济仍然受制于很多不理性的监管规定，包括那些限制外资进入高端服务业的监管规定。缩短负面清单会对美国公司有所帮助，因为高端服务业可以说是美国的强项之一。此外，《双边投资协定》将为中国企业在美经营铺平道路，并会鼓励中国企业加大对美投资力度。
Third, the two should sign a free-trade agreement. Mr Trump may find this idea unappealing now but it would open China’s door to American exports. The US door has long been open to Chinese exports, first under the “most favoured nations” arrangement, then under the World Trade Organisation. But China maintains high tariffs on imported consumer goods. Its people are becoming richer and more able to buy foreign goods; the rebalancing of the economy is under way; and domestic consumption is increasing. The country is set to become a big consumer goods market and an FTA with the US would now benefit American companies more than Chinese ones.
最后，两国应当签订一份自由贸易协定。眼下，特朗普也许会觉得这个主张没有吸引力，但它将为美国对华出口打开大门。长期以来，中国对美出口的大门一直敞开着——最早是通过“最惠国”安排，接着通过世界贸易组织(WTO)。但是，中国仍对进口消费品征收高关税。中国人开始变得更富有，也更有能力购买外国商品；经济再平衡正在进行中；国内消费在增加。中国定将成为一个很大的消费品市场，如今签署自由贸易协定将对美国企业、而不是中国企业更有利。If, as he claims, President Trump is a dealmaker, such moves will appeal to him. And as the Chinese are also good dealmakers, with pragmatism an inherent part of their culture, Sino-US trade relations can be much brighter than has seemed likely.
如果特朗普如他声称的那样，是一个善于做交易的人，那么上述举措将对他产生吸引力。鉴于中国人也很善于做交易（实用主义是中国文化的固有组成部分），中美贸易关系可以比看起来的更光明。Yao Yang is dean of the National School of Development at Peking University and director of the China Center for Economic Research
本文作者是北京大学(Beijing University)国家发展研究院院长、中国经济研究中心主任